Good Morning, Bronco fans! It’s game day! Week 15 action in the NFL. Tonight, we have the honor of playing in the last Thursday night game of the season. It’s a rematch of Week 10, a divisional showdown with the visiting San Diego Chargers!
In the first matchup with the Chargers, the Broncos came out with a big win on the road, beating the Chargers 28-20. Peyton had a big game throwing for more than 300 yards and 4 TDs. The Denver “D” held Philip Rivers to just 219 yards and 1 TD, but there was something a bit different about this game.
For the majority of the 2013 season, the Denver Broncos have been a dominant second half team, but in Week 10, the Chargers outscored the Broncos 14-7 in the second half. The most amazing part of that game was San Diego’s ability to keep Manning off of the field. The Chargers had the ball for 38:03 compared to the Broncos time of possession of 21:57. Keeping Manning on the sidelines will be the only way to keep the scoreboard from lighting up!
5 Keys for My Prediction
Don’t Judge Me! Last week, after shredding the Titans in the freezing cold, Peyton told reporters to take their narrative of him not being good in cold weather games and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. Well, Peyton, here is another chance to get another monkey off of your back. It will be cold tonight at kickoff, but it won’t be “freezing”, and based on weather reports, the temperature will still be over freezing when the game ends. However, this is a big game. It’s not quite like a playoff game for Denver, but this game has a lot of meaning. The Patriots and the Chiefs are only one game behind Denver and its home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If Denver wins, they will be the AFC West Champions, again!
Double Decker Alert! Did you know that the Broncos became the first team EVER to have 4 players with at least 10 TDs in the same season? Did you know that if Eric Decker catches two more touchdown passes that he will also have 10 and will be the 5th player on the team in double digits? My prediction, he gets them both tonight…. In the first half! With the absence of Wes Welker and the surge in production that we have seen from Decker in the last 3 weeks, there will be plenty of Manning to Decker connections.
Danger Phil Rivers! Your Chargers have their backs against a wall. This is a must win for the Chargers and they are going to come out and treat this like a playoff game. With their playoff hopes fading, Philip Rivers will need to lead his team to victory, or their season will essentially be over. This team will be hungry and fired up. If the Broncos defense can step up their game and prevent big plays, the Chargers season will end tonight.
He Got Game! Danny Woodhead has been a major producer for the Chargers this year. He has touched the ball a total of 149 times (84 runs and 65 completions) and has score a total of 8 touchdowns and gained 864 yards. Without containment, he could easily eclipse the 1,000 yard mark tonight. Add in Keenan Allen (61 Catches, 902 Yards, 6 TDs) and Antonio Gates (68 Catches, 776 Yards, 3 TDs) and you have a pretty powerful 3 headed monster. Couple that with Philip Rivers’ NFL leading 70.2 completion percentage and this looks like an offense that will be able to keep up with the Broncos. The Denver defense will need to step it up big time tonight if they want to secure the AFC West crown at home.
It’s Not If, But When! When will Peyton break Tom Brady’s single season touchdown record? When will Peyton break Drew Brees’ single season passing yard record? There is no doubt in my mind that Peyton Manning will break both of these records. My only question is when. The touchdown record could fall, or at least be tied tonight. This game has the ability to be a shootout, and if that is the case, I can see Peyton throwing 5 TDs. The yardage record will likely have to wait until the last game of the season. Currently, Manning trails Brees’ record by 954 yards. He will need to throw for an average of 318 yards per game in order to break the record. This offense has been absolutely amazing to watch this season. Enjoy it all Broncos fans.
Final Score Prediction
San Diego Chargers – 27
Denver Broncos – 41
With only one week to go before most leagues have their championship game, there has never been a more important week in fantasy football this season.
As start-sit decisions have a greater potential impact than at any other point this season, you will find below some players that fall into a "start'em" or "sit'em" category. That said, your league's depth and scoring settings as well as your team's roster composition will ultimately determine who should be started.
To get a better sense of whether you should start one player over another, check out my Week 15 fantasy rankings, which include standard and PPR-scoring rankings as well as flex rankings.
For questions that can't be answered via my rankings due to unique scoring settings, feel free to send me start-sit questions via Twitter (@EDSFootball).
That said, here are some players to consider starting in Week 15:
QB - Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (at MIN)
In the snowy conditions at Lincoln Field last week, Foles finally threw an interception for the first time in his 218 pass attempts this season. Foles now has a 20:1 TD-to-INT ratio and he's scored three rushing touchdowns as well.
While a lot of attention has been given to his interception-free performances heading into last week, I'm not sure how many have noticed that he has 32 rush attempts for 130 yards and two touchdowns over the past four games. Nobody will confuse Foles for Michael Vick, that's for sure, but that's an average of 7.25 fantasy points from rushing alone during the past four games.
With the exception of the Cowboys, no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and no team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Vikings this season.
QB - Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (at CLE)
Despite the success of Josh McCown, 350-plus yards in three straight and a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio this season, all signs are pointing to Cutler getting the start in Week 15 as he returns from his ankle and groin injuries. Either way, however, I'd start whichever Bears quarterback gets the start this week.
The Bears are loaded with a trio of talented pass-catching weapons in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall on the outside and Matt Forte out of the backfield. Both Jeffery (fifth) and Marshall (eight) rank in the top eight in the NFL in receiving yards and Forte is tied with San Diego's Danny Woodhead for most receptions (65) by a running back.
While one of Marshall and Jeffery will have to contend with shutdown corner Joe Haden, the other won't. After allowing only two passing touchdowns in their first five games, the Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight consecutive games.
RB - Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
With injury derailing his season early on, Jackson has had a healthy workload in each of his past three games and has been running the ball well. During that span, Jackson has 54 carries for 218 yards and three touchdowns in addition to five receptions for 25 yards.
This week, he faces a Redskins team that appears to have thrown in the towel. Even before all of the attention on the team's dysfunction at the top of the organization, the team was bad against the run. On the season, Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and they have surrendered nine touchdowns to RBs in their past five games.
RB - Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (at DEN)
Mathews had a season-high 29 carries last week for 103 yards and a touchdown, but he has been highly productive over the past eight games. During that span, Mathews has four 100-yard games, has scored all four of his touchdowns this season and is averaging 4.65 yards per carry.
On Thursday Night Football, the Chargers will face the Broncos, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
RB - Shane Vereen, New England Patriots (at MIA)
Vereen is especially a great option in point-per-reception (PPR) formats, but he is a top-10 play in standard formats as well. In his four games since returning from short-term IR, Vereen has a total of 33 receptions for 315 yards in addition to his 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Last week, he was targeted 17 times and finished with 12 catches for 153 yards.
The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
RB - Rashard Mendenhall, Arizona Cardinals (at TEN)
Although he is barely inside my top 24 fantasy running backs this week, Mendenhall is still an RB2 in standard 12-team leagues. One week after rushing for a season-high 76 yards, Mendenhall gained only 41 yards on 17 carries last week. That said, he should get 15-plus carries in a favorable matchup and he has scored in three of his past four games.
The Titans have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. In addition, they have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in six of their last eight games.
WR - Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (at DEN)
Since Week 4, Allen has 58 receptions for 872 yards and five touchdowns and only six receivers have more receiving yards than the rookie during that span. In fact, the only receiver with more 100-yard games during that span is Cleveland's Josh Gordon (six) although a few are tied with Allen at five.
WR - Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (vs. SD)
After recording just one catch for five yards a few weeks ago, Decker has back-to-back games with eight receptions and 117-plus yards. In those two games, Decker has a total of five touchdowns. While there has been some variability in Decker's production in such a loaded offense, Wes Welker will miss at least tonight's game with a concussion, which makes Decker even more of a lock for plenty of targets.
While the Broncos offense is generally matchup-proof, the Chargers secondary has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
WR - Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK)
Bowe isn't necessarily a must-start option, but he's worth considerating as a WR2 and is ranked inside my top 24 receivers for the week. While his yardage totals over the past five weeks are relatively modest (from 51 to a season-high 70) but at least consistent, Bowe has scored a touchdown in three of his past four games.
The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
WR - Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (at TB)
As bad as the 49ers pass offense has been this season, you may not have noticed how productive Boldin has been over the past four weeks. During that span, Boldin has a minimum of nine fantasy points in each game and he has a total of 26 catches for 341 yards and three touchdowns. He has more than 90 yards in three consecutive games.
TE - Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens (at DET)
In his season debut last week, Pitta was productive and targeted more than any other Raven. He finished the game with six catches for 48 yards and a touchdown on his 11 targets. Going forward, he should continue to be heavily targeted in general and especially in the red zone.
The Lions have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points and only one touchdown to tight ends this season, but Pitta is still a top-10 (or better) option for the rest of the season.
* Sign up for an account with DraftStreet and enter their Week 15 freeroll with $1,000 in prizes.
Here are some players to possibly sit for Week 15:
QB - Eli Manning, New York Giants (vs. SEA)
If you own Manning, you likely don't need me to tell you to sit him. If you do, there's a good chance you're no longer playing in meaningful fantasy matchups anyways. Even those in much deeper leagues, however, Manning is still not worth starting with a tough matchup against the Seahawks, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Going into the final three games of the season, Manning has only one game with 20-plus fantasy points and that was Week 1 against the league's most generous fantasy defense. With three consecutive plus matchups in the previous weeks against DAL, WAS and SD, Manning scored 14, 11 and 10 fantasy points, respectively. Manning has thrown more interceptions (20) than touchdowns (16).
RB - Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens (at DET)
The Lions allowed LeSean McCoy to set the Eagles' single-game rushing record last week, but that was partly/largely due to the conditions. Before last week, the Lions had not allowed a rushing touchdown in eight consecutive games and limited a team's running backs to 61 rushing yards or less in each of those eight games.
Rice has only four games with double-digit fantasy points this season and all four of those games were in plus matchups: DEN, MIA, CHI and MIN. Averaging only 3.0 yards per carry this season, Rice is more likely to struggle in a difficult matchup on a dry surface in the dome.
RB - DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (vs. NYJ)
Although The Daily Show will miss Week 15 with a knee injury and Williams could be in store for a relatively large workload similar to his games at the beginning of the year, he has a difficult matchup this week. Like the Lions, the Jets had an off game last week, but I expect them to bounce back and stifle the Panthers rushing attack this week.
RB - Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans (vs. ARI)
I'm guessing that few would know that only six running backs have scored more fantasy points than CJ2K this season. There's a big gap between RB6 (Marshawn Lynch) and RB7 (Johnson), but that's still impressive. That said, Johnson is currently my RB25 for the week, which puts him just outside being an RB2 in 12-team leagues based on my rankings.
No team has been better than the Cardinals at limiting fantasy production by opposing running backs. They have allowed 10 fantasy points or less to opposing running backs in six consecutive games.
RB - Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints (at STL)
Thomas had been relatively productive and worthy of starting as an RB2 many weeks earlier in the season, but he has 11 carries for 14 yards in his past two games combined. While he has at least four receptions in each of his past five games and 64 catches on the season, he has just two fantasy points in each of his past two games in standard-scoring formats.
WR - T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
The first time this season that Hilton faced the Texans, he scored a season-high 30 fantasy points. I'll go out on a limb and say that he will score less this around. Much less. Ok, that's not really going on a limb. Over his past four games, Hilton has scored a total of 11 fantasy points and he had only two catches for seven yards last week.
WR - Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (vs. NE)
It's been an up-and-down season for Wallace in Miami and there have been more down (than up) performances. Against his former team last week, 60 Minutes had just two catches for 19 yards. Wallace has had four or less fantasy points in seven games this season.
With a tough matchup against Aqib Talib, Wallace could have another game with just a few fantasy points this week.
WR - Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals (at TEN)
Floyd had a nice three-game run with a total of 50 fantasy points from Weeks 11 to 13 before last week's modest performance against the Rams. Dealing with an ankle injury and not practicing on Wednesday, Floyd goes into a tough matchup against the Titans at less than 100 percent.
Only the Seahawks have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Titans. Unfortunately for Floyd, the Seahawks are his Week 16 matchup as well.
WR - Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants (vs. SEA)
Nicks has had a relatively disappointing season, but he had one of his best performances last week with five catches for 135 yards. On the year, however, he has yet to score a touchdown. As noted above, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
TE - Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (at CLE)
Playing alongside such a talented trio of Marshall, Jeffery and Forte, Bennett has been solid but not spectacular this season. Bennett has four fantasy points or less in five of the six games since the team's bye. There are at least 12 other options at the position that are a better play than Bennett this week.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings:
Week 15 Fantasy Football QB Rankings
Week 15 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
Week 15 Fantasy Football WR Rankings
Week 15 Fantasy Football TE Rankings
Week 15 Daily Fantasy Football Salary-Cap Analysis:
FanDuel salary-cap analysis
DraftKings salary-cap analysis
DraftStreet salary-cap analysis
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